Measles is riding the coattails of other global crises, so its resurgence has been somewhat overshadowed — but make no mistake: measles is back. Think of it as one of those comebacks nobody asked for — like Modern Talking in 1998 — but with far more serious consequences, because unlike bad music, measles is highly contagious.
Each infected person can transmit the virus to 12 to 18 others , making it more contagious than COVID-19. To put it in perspective, someone infected with the Omicron variant would typically infect about eight people. But it wasn’t until 2022 that the WHO called measles an “imminent threat in every region of the world.” The reason is simple: herd immunity requires around 95% vaccination coverage. In some regions — particularly Southeast Europe — the rate is far lower. In parts of Romania and the Balkans, vaccination coverage sometimes falls to 50%, leaving millions of children and adults vulnerable.
Measles is a major problem, especially in Southeast Europe, such as in Romania.
Europe is not alone. Measles has spread widely across North America this year. By the end of February, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) warned that the region’s measles-free status is at risk unless countries intensify vaccination and outbreak control efforts. Southeast Asia is also seeing record numbers, with Vietnam and Thailand particularly affected. Even South Korea, officially declared measles-free, is reporting its highest infection rates in six years. And because this trend is global, cases are also increasing across sub-Saharan Africa.
This resurgence is not only a public health crisis but also a financial burden. Depending on the country, a single case of measles can cost between 30,000 and 50,000 US dollars in public healthcare expenses. By contrast, the MMR vaccine (measles, mumps, rubella) costs about 40 euros in Germany, around eight dollars in Africa for the most expensive version, and as little as $1.50 for lower-cost packages. A simple shot could prevent enormous suffering—and enormous costs.
The Fuel Behind Misinformation: Distrust
Fortunately, measles is not life-threatening for most people. The problem is that no one can predict who will become seriously ill. On average, three out of every 1,000 people who contract measles die from it. Over the past 50 years, between 1974 and 2024, the measles vaccine is estimated to have prevented around 94 million deaths worldwide.
So why are vaccination rates falling?
Part of the reason lies in perception. Measles is still often dismissed as a “childhood disease,” which makes it seem harmless. But an even greater obstacle is misinformation. The long-debunked claim that the measles vaccine causes autism continues to circulate in many parts of the world. As the Bangkok Post recently reported, around ten percent of parents of hospitalized measles patients in Thailand fear that the vaccine could cause side effects such as autism. And this distrust is not limited to Asia: according to a study
Misinformation is a global problem — one that increases the likelihood of outbreaks: “In 2023, only 83% of children worldwide received their first dose of the measles vaccine, down from 86% in 2019.” Herd immunity requires 95 percent.
Adnan & Sezer Kisa from Kristiania University of Applied Sciences in Oslo state in their meta-analysis „Health conspiracy theories: a scoping review of drivers, impacts, and countermeasures“: “Conspiracy theories negatively influenced attitudes toward vaccination, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norms.” Unsurprisingly: “Social media platforms played a central role in amplifying “
Just last April, they wrote in the International Journal for Equity in Health: “Studies in 66 countries showed that greater agreement with conspiracy theories was associated with lower compliance with public health measures, with the effects being greater in industrialized countries.” The conspiracy theories themselves cover a broad spectrum of beliefs. However, their basis is always the same: distrust of governments
Conspiracy theories generally discredit vaccines.
Although mistrust remains the main driver of conspiracy theories, they also gain traction when their supporters are part of governments. This makes the problem far more complex — and far more dangerous. Vaccine opponents today have more political momentum than at any time in recent history, and that momentum is increasingly being translated into policy decisions.
Because the United States has withdrawn from the WHO, produces about half of all patent-protected pharmaceuticals (compared with 35 percent from the European Union), and is not participating in the global pandemic agreement, there is growing concern that the US could impose strict export controls on critical medicines during a future pandemic.
A Global Phenomenon
The effects of this shift are already visible. In recent weeks, hundreds of vaccine-related research grants in the United States have been canceled, and a Moderna contract to produce an mRNA-based bird flu vaccine was terminated. Vaccine expert Paul Offit of the University of Pennsylvania warns that these developments could have serious global repercussions.
Offit, a former member of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) — a 17-member body that advises the US government on vaccine policy — notes that all members of the ACIP were recently dismissed by US Health Secretary John F. Kennedy Jr. and replaced by vaccine skeptics and opponents.
Among the new appointees is Robert Malone, once a respected virologist, who has since promoted conspiracy theories such as the so-called “Great Reset.” He recently dismissed the confirmed deaths of two children from measles in Texas as “misinformation.” In the broader anti-vaccination movement, such rhetoric is unfortunately not uncommon — some even go so far as to call measles a “biological weapon.”
Robert Malone himself took part in the first public meeting of the newly formed ACIP on June 25 and 26. The June meeting is especially significant because it sets the course for the upcoming respiratory virus season. Decisions made there shape insurance coverage, clinical procurement, distribution logistics, and public health communication. Timing is crucial — and because these are decisions made in the United States, they also have global implications far beyond national borders.
To make a long story short: the flu vaccine was recommended — but not formulations containing thimerosal, which make up only about 4% of the total supply. Thimerosal is a mercury-based preservative once common in multi-dose vaccines. Despite decades of use, no evidence of harm has ever been found — unsurprising, given that it is an organic mercury compound that the body can efficiently eliminate. In fact, thimerosal has been largely phased out since 2002, with only a few exceptions.
A Commission from the Dinosaur Era
Notably, the committee did not vote on the approval of the COVID-19 vaccine for the fall season. For reasons that remain unclear, the item was removed from the agenda at the last minute. Instead, the discussion turned to whether low vaccine uptake should be considered a reason not to recommend the vaccine at all — in other words, whether public relations should outweigh medical science.
The irony is that some of the very members who raised this argument had themselves previously contributed to public distrust in COVID-19 vaccines.
Even more concerning, the new ACIP decided to establish two new working groups — both focusing on questions that have already been conclusively answered by decades of research. One will examine whether people can be “over-vaccinated” and whether cumulative vaccinations could harm the body (they do not). The other will reassess the safety of the MMR vaccine — a vaccine that has already undergone extensive safety testing worldwide and whose benefits have been proven beyond doubt.
What will stick from this meeting? The jury’s still out.
Paul Offit likens the current situation to “a test at the fence, like the velociraptors in Jurassic Park.” If no one reacts — if the fence doesn’t hold — and vaccine acceptance continues to decline, public skepticism will only deepen. Yet, he warns, the real danger does not lie in individual outbreaks, but in the erosion of the infrastructure that supports vaccination itself.
During the June meeting, the presentation on thimerosal was delivered by Lyn Redwood, former president of Children’s Health Defense, the anti-vaccine organization founded by John F. Kennedy Jr. In her talk, Redwood avoided the term autism, instead using the phrase “neurodevelopmental disorders” — a coded substitute within the anti-vaccine movement. She falsely claimed that thimerosal causes brain inflammation, describing it as “one of the hallmarks of autism.” None of this is true. But the presentation is publicly available on the CDC website — because that agency now falls under Kennedy’s authority. This gives misinformation an official veneer, lending it a legitimacy it does not deserve.
Offit warns that if the ACIP and Kennedy succeed in adding autism to the list of compensable vaccine injuries, the United States could return to the early 1980s — when a wave of lawsuits drove the number of vaccine manufacturers down from 18 to just four. The reason: liability costs were simply too high for products that generate relatively little profit. The worst-case scenario is not just a decline in confidence, but a collapse in vaccine production itself.
The issue would no longer be one of public communication or access, but of sheer availability. And in that case, measles would no longer be underestimated — it would simply be one of many preventable diseases returning.
